GOP I.D. GAINS - AT 7:28 A.M. ET:  Andrew Malcolm, of the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog, reports on dramatic changes in party identification during the first year of the Age of Obama:

A new poll by Rasmussen Reports finds that despite -- or perhaps because of -- legislative progress on President Obama's 2009 keynote issue of healthcare reform, among other issues, this autumn, the number of adult Americans calling themselves Democrats fell by almost 2 whole points just in the month of November.

A year after hope, change and jubilation filled the party ranks, those Americans considering themselves Democrats is now only 36%.

That's the lowest percentage in 48 months.

The percentage calling themselves Republican is lower -- 33.1%. However, unlike the Democrats, that number is increasing, up from 31.9% the previous month.

What's particularly encouraging is that the unaffiliated, 30.8%, are tilting rightward in most polls.  Indeed, the Obama brigade's greatest losses are among independents.

All the factors are in place for the out-party to make gains among unhappy -- and often unemployed -- voters. But the one indicator that has caused analysts to hedge their current bets about maintaining that pattern in 2010 has been the low number of Americans calling themselves Republicans after the later Bush years when the party abandoned its conservative fiscal roots.

However, after an active legislative fall with Democratic congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid prominent in the media, along with immense spending and deficit numbers, November's poll shows the GOP percentage now increasing, even with the party still leaderless nationally.

As a result, the current gap in party identifiers is only 2.9%, the smallest since December, 2007.

COMMENT:  Sounds good, but don't underestimate the political abilities of the Obama White House.  At the same time, those abilities were tested when Obama was a blank slate.  This political team hasn't had to try to sell a president or party one year into a highly contentious presidential term.

But the Republicans still need a set of clear principles to run on, and a slate of attractive candidates.  The homework still hasn't been done.  They cannot depend on Democratic unpopularity, which can turn around quickly.

What we have coming up are the most exciting midterm elections in memory.

December 3, 2009